After a drop in the number of murders from 1923 to 1924, some city officials in Jacksonville labeled it a “turning point.”
Well, maybe.
Murders in any city fluctuate substantially. Trends rarely continue.
Responses also vary. Some think more police officers will help. Others call for “neighborhood investment.” Still others support various crime prevention programs using various approaches.
But people still kill people.
To me, the most persuasive argument is that murders increase when the population demographic of males 18-25 rise. They are the group most responsible for murders.
Whatever the causes and cures, let’s hope the recent drop does away with the liberal media fixation that Jacksonville is the “murder capital.”
I got so tired of hearing that refrain that I collected the number of homicides in Florida counties for a 10-year period, ending 2021 when the “murder capital” refrain was still in vogue.
But I didn’t analyze the data myself. I got an artificial intelligence chatbot to do the chore for me.
What it found was rather interesting.
Duval was not even in the top 10 countries having the highest rate of homicides. Hamilton, Gadsden and Putnam led off that list. Hamilton also had the highest single-year rate with 43.6 per 100,000 in 2020.
The only time Duval was mentioned in the AI analysis was when counties were listed showing the most improvement during the decade. Duval came in seventh, with Columbia County leading the list.
But I’ve learned that a story only is a good story if it is true. Therefore. I double checked the figures. They were bogus.
Just by looking at the numbers, which include the count and the rate per 100,000, I could see Duval ranked high.
But I didn’t give up on AI yet.
AI made big news this week with Deep Seek, a new Chinese version that is blowing everything else away. Or so it seems.
I have not been that impressed with AI so far after several attempts to use it. At times it is just flat wrong. I caught one chatbot in a logical contradiction and it asked to stop the conversation, claiming that it was stil learning.
But Deep Seek got it right, and very quickly.
This is what it spewed out in a few seconds:
Key Observations:
- Average Values:
- The “Average” column shows the mean value for each county over the 10-year period (2012–2021).
- The highest average is for Hamilton County (15.8), followed by Duval County (13.4) and Gadsden County (11.8).
- The lowest average is for Charlotte County (2.4), followed by Collier County (2.8) and Walton County (3.0).
- Trends Over Time:
- Some counties show significant fluctuations year-to-year. For example:
- Glades County has values ranging from 0.0 to 11.1, with many years at 0.0.
- Hamilton County has the highest single-year value of 43.6 (2020).
- Other counties, like Florida (statewide), show relatively stable values, ranging from 6.2 to 7.7.
- Some counties show significant fluctuations year-to-year. For example:
- Outliers:
- Gilchrist County has an extreme value of 54.6 (2014), which is significantly higher than all other values in the dataset.
- Dixie County also has a high outlier at 31.3 (2014).
- Consistency:
- Counties like Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade show consistent values over the years, with small fluctuations.
Summary Statistics:
- Highest Average: Hamilton County (15.8)
- Lowest Average: Charlotte County (2.4)
- Most Volatile: Gilchrist County (range of 0.0–54.6)
So if Jacksonville is a lawless city with nightly carnage beyond all others in Florida, AI didn’t discover it in the numbers I provided. (It is better to use a county comparison because Jacksonville is almost all of Duval County. Also, while there is a legal difference between homicide and murder it doesn’t change the numbers much.)
Jacksonville has beefed up its police force and has spent millions of dollars on various intervention programs. No one really has done an analysis to see what any of those strategies has done on a “bang for the buck” basis. Maybe the local media geniuses could do that instead of merely assigning silly labels to the situation.
As for AI, it does not seem to be quite ready to take over the world and make humans obsolete as some in the media fantasize.
I also check with the bot on that fantasy. The answer:
“… while AI has the potential to transform many aspects of society, it is not on a path to take over the world or make humans obsolete. The focus should be on developing AI responsibly, ensuring that it serves as a tool to enhance human capabilities and improve quality of life.”